Patricia Agupusi, PhD
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Nigeria national election 2019: here we come again

2/22/2019

2 Comments

 
​Since 1999 when Nigerian transitioned once again to democracy, the country's political crisis has deepened in every presidential election circle. Last month – January 2019, while in Nigeria on fieldwork, I had the opportunity to observe the pre-election activities in four regions of the country. I traveled to the Southwest, Abuja, Northeast, and the Southeast interacting with people of different backgrounds on their political views and the state of the country. Compare to the 2014/2015-election season in Nigeria; a lot has changed in the political landscape. 
First, the Nigerian national political imaginations and cleavages – religion, region, and ethnicity are not as salient as it was in 2015. This is understandable given that in the last election, it was a context between the sitting President, a southern Christian, and a northern Muslim.  This year, the two major candidates are both Fulani Muslim from the north. The current President (Muhammed Buhari) is from the northwest while AtikuAbubakar is from the northeast.
Second, there is a lot of lethargy. People do not think their vote will count. Unlike four years ago whereby there were a robust civic engagement and the confidence that every vote counts. This time, there is a general belief that this election will be rigged, which is not new in Nigeria. However, there is a regression in political freedom as oppositions claim of suppression. Some activists I spoke with confirmed that they have been threatened when their report is not favorable to the government. 
​Third, in addition to the suppression of opposition voices, political violence has escalated in the country as never before. Some people said that they are not voting for fear of their lives. Just a few days ago, President Buhari ordered the police and the military to be ruthless with vote-riggers. The problem is that this is emboldening the police and the military that are already known for their recklessness and operating outside the law. Many have condemned the President's order and rhetoric. The opposition calls it jungle justice and licenses to kill. They accused the President of politicizing and using the military to further his political interest. The two major parties will commit election fraud. It is a matter of who will be more ruthless?
Fourth, there is a problem with voters card as many, especially in the south, complained of inability to collect their voter's card. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) confirmed the voters' ID problem and also noted that election would not be held in some areas due to PVC problem and ballot allocation. Despite postponing the election for one week, these problems have not been solved. The INEC insisted that the election will be held on Saturday 23rd February. It is very likely it would hold, but the legitimacy of the election will be in question.
Generally, the improvement that was made four years ago in the Nigerian democratic process has been erased. Nigerian elections have always been a zero-sum game, and the winner takes it all. In the absence of a better word, I say, this election is an absolute-zero-sum game. This is why many have resigned to whatever outcome would be. It is now 'a wait and see situation'.

2 Comments
Ogechi Okpala link
2/23/2019 12:45:41 pm

I agree that some have resigned to what the outcome may be, while others are adamant on their voice being heard.Even with the low confidence on the value of the votes and the deferment of the election, there were massive turnout at the polling center, In short the Independent National Electoral Commission did not live up to expectations. With the situation on ground presently,Nigerians are angry right now at the level of rigging done right in their faces, Electoral equipments were not supplied to some party strongholds, ballot boxes are being snatched at the polling center and burnt, party hoodlums telling you to vote for a particular party or you are beaten, But to our greatest surprise Nigerians are refusing to be bullied demanding reruns in their Area and demanding their right to Vote. I guess their is Hope after all for a better democracy. But as you say lets wait and see.

Reply
Akaoma O.
2/23/2019 01:19:53 pm

In my opinion, i believe the people are more aware.The postponement of the elections put more fire in the belly of the public giving them more reason to come out en masse and vote for who they want on that seat. The outcome of the election in the next few days will determine in what direction the country is headed.

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    Patricia Agupusi

    The opinions here are my own.

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