Research
Ongoing projects
Domestic terrorism in transitioning states
Since the 1990s about 34 new countries have been created, and many are transitioning from the authoritarian regime or/and civil war to democracy. These are happening in the age of accelerated globalization and the rise in global terrorism. The number of people who have died from domestic terrorist activity has increased nine-fold since the year 2000 according to the Global Terrorism Index. Domestic terrorism is also rising in Africa. Terrorist threats in Africa have diversified and continue to expand in recent years especial in the northern, eastern and Sahel region with spillover to Nigeria. In 2014/2015, Boko Haram overtook ISIL to become the most deadly terrorist group in the world. East African countries like Kenya experienced domestic terrorist attacks and remain vulnerable from Al-Shabab in Somalia. With the fall of Libya, attacks in Tunisia and Egypt, North Africa is becoming a major hub for and risk from domestic terrorism. The study seeks to combine ethnographic, quantitative and experimental methods to provide explanation and develop a framework for an understanding of the rise of domestic terrorism in this region. This study, which is situated within the framework of state capacity in transitioning states, is an extension of four-years ongoing field research that started with Boko Haram insurgency in Nigeria. The fieldwork includes key informant interviews and lab-in-the-field experiments on the school attendance of internally displaced people (IDPs) living in refugee camps and mapping of variation of violent conflicts.
Since the 1990s about 34 new countries have been created, and many are transitioning from the authoritarian regime or/and civil war to democracy. These are happening in the age of accelerated globalization and the rise in global terrorism. The number of people who have died from domestic terrorist activity has increased nine-fold since the year 2000 according to the Global Terrorism Index. Domestic terrorism is also rising in Africa. Terrorist threats in Africa have diversified and continue to expand in recent years especial in the northern, eastern and Sahel region with spillover to Nigeria. In 2014/2015, Boko Haram overtook ISIL to become the most deadly terrorist group in the world. East African countries like Kenya experienced domestic terrorist attacks and remain vulnerable from Al-Shabab in Somalia. With the fall of Libya, attacks in Tunisia and Egypt, North Africa is becoming a major hub for and risk from domestic terrorism. The study seeks to combine ethnographic, quantitative and experimental methods to provide explanation and develop a framework for an understanding of the rise of domestic terrorism in this region. This study, which is situated within the framework of state capacity in transitioning states, is an extension of four-years ongoing field research that started with Boko Haram insurgency in Nigeria. The fieldwork includes key informant interviews and lab-in-the-field experiments on the school attendance of internally displaced people (IDPs) living in refugee camps and mapping of variation of violent conflicts.
Book project: State capture and the politics of the two economies debate in South Africa
Unlike in decades past, when political factors were the primary determinants of economic and social development in the country, the new South Africa is characterized by a situation in which economic elites exert an outsized influence on the direction of policy development. Given the recent debate over state capture by the Gupta family in South Africa, it is necessary to explore the dynamism of state capture in South Africa and how it has shaped the reinforcement of the ‘two economies’ phenomenon in the country. The book I am developing builds on my previous study, rejecting what I believe to be an overly simplistic Left-Right ideological and race-based opposition typical of analyses of the South African political economy. Instead, my focus is on the complex relationships between elites and how they have evolved in the post-apartheid context. I argue that the economic elites have determined how the country is currently managing the ‘two economies’ problem. I am developinga framework with the aid of a simple model that explores elite cooperation/conflict in the spheres of the state, the market and civil society in South Africa. This manuscript will develop three additional new chapters addressing the challenges of laborunions, land reform and the state political machine.
This research is based on two key assumptions:
(i) There has been a shift in power relations between the political and economic elites in South Africa since the early 1990s, and this shift has strongly influenced the framing of policies that affect the country's transformation programs.
(ii) Instead of thinking only in terms of conflicting power relations, it may be possible to forge effective cooperation between the political and economic elites, along with the citizenry, through public/private partnership. This approach could be a more effective way to foster sustainable, egalitarian development policies.
Further field research is scheduled for 2019. The field research will include interviews of union members, targeted individuals affected by the land reform, members of the parliament and other stakeholders. Information collected will complement data from South African socioeconomic surveys such as the Household Survey, Work & Labor Force Survey, Living Conditions Survey and the OECD South Africa economic survey.
Unlike in decades past, when political factors were the primary determinants of economic and social development in the country, the new South Africa is characterized by a situation in which economic elites exert an outsized influence on the direction of policy development. Given the recent debate over state capture by the Gupta family in South Africa, it is necessary to explore the dynamism of state capture in South Africa and how it has shaped the reinforcement of the ‘two economies’ phenomenon in the country. The book I am developing builds on my previous study, rejecting what I believe to be an overly simplistic Left-Right ideological and race-based opposition typical of analyses of the South African political economy. Instead, my focus is on the complex relationships between elites and how they have evolved in the post-apartheid context. I argue that the economic elites have determined how the country is currently managing the ‘two economies’ problem. I am developinga framework with the aid of a simple model that explores elite cooperation/conflict in the spheres of the state, the market and civil society in South Africa. This manuscript will develop three additional new chapters addressing the challenges of laborunions, land reform and the state political machine.
This research is based on two key assumptions:
(i) There has been a shift in power relations between the political and economic elites in South Africa since the early 1990s, and this shift has strongly influenced the framing of policies that affect the country's transformation programs.
(ii) Instead of thinking only in terms of conflicting power relations, it may be possible to forge effective cooperation between the political and economic elites, along with the citizenry, through public/private partnership. This approach could be a more effective way to foster sustainable, egalitarian development policies.
Further field research is scheduled for 2019. The field research will include interviews of union members, targeted individuals affected by the land reform, members of the parliament and other stakeholders. Information collected will complement data from South African socioeconomic surveys such as the Household Survey, Work & Labor Force Survey, Living Conditions Survey and the OECD South Africa economic survey.
Work-in-progress
Project 1
The use of female suicide bombers
Project 2
The transition problem: a comparative analysis of racial inequality in South Africa and the USA.
Project 3
The politics of foreign aid: re-examining the relations between foreign aid and development
Project 4
Democracy and the dynamics of strongman politics in Africa
The use of female suicide bombers
Project 2
The transition problem: a comparative analysis of racial inequality in South Africa and the USA.
Project 3
The politics of foreign aid: re-examining the relations between foreign aid and development
Project 4
Democracy and the dynamics of strongman politics in Africa